Barthold implies a more conservative timeline than is often inferred from press releases
WiMAX s appeal has been tied to the success of its IEEE 802.11 cousin, Wi-Fi. At first, WiMAX will help enable Wi-Fi hotspots, rather than running expensive wires. Then the technology will provide wider reach for wireless consumers, include WiMAX hot zones, said Dean Chang, chair of the WiMAX Service Provider Working Group and a product management director at Aperto Networks. Chang was reticent to specify exactly when certified plug-and-play technology would become available and widespread the modems under the Christmas tree model.
Global broadband fixed wireless subscribers, in thousands are charted (right).
To be honest, I think we re going to need another chip generation to do that, to get to the indoor install, Chang said. The radio side has not been addressed as much, so we re going to need some integration there. You re probably talking another year before chips come out for indoor.
WiMAX can move ahead without it, Shakouri said.
We re getting inundated by requests from Asian countries and European countries and Latin America that see it as an opportunity to build their countries infrastructure, he said. The telecom dynamic in the U.S. is very different than the rest of the world and they re less susceptible to the WiMAX solution. Maybe [in] the second phase, after we have reduced the costs and the competitive environment in the U.S. opens up a little more, then it makes sense to come back into the U.S.
I don t think that 16e will actually happen until 2007, said Yuanzhe (Michael) Cai, a research analyst with Parks Associates. Will that be too late? It depends on both how the demand for mobile broadband wireless services grows and how the alternative technologies grow.
The WiMax Summit 2004, May 25-28th in Paris, may result in some announcements but WCAI 2004, June 1-4th, in Washington DC, could be a real showcase for broadband wireless. Wavesat and Atmel could introduce their 802.16d chip. “We’ll have our chips available in June,” said Michel Guay, Wavesat’s president.
Researchers continuing to develop ever-greater spectral efficiency using Adaptive Modulation and Coding (AMC), Multiple Input, Multiple Output (MIMO), Multi-User Detection (MUD) and Beamforming techniques.
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