GSM and CDMA operators are in a horse race. The battle for the lead in high speed data is constantly shifting, there are no sure bets, and tens of billions of real dollars are on the line.
The competitors are driving hard. AT&T and Cingular, based on GSM systems, came out of the gate first with GPRS, providing some 30-50kbps. The General Packet Radio Service, a proven technology, was reliable enough but not very fast.
CDMA operators Verizon and Sprint, saddled up 1XRTT, delivering 40-60kbps out of the gate. It works well enough for e-mail but it’s no "wireless DSL". Consumers wanted more.
AT&T then made a dramatic move;rolling out EDGE. EDGE (Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution) will provide AT&T with a 60-110kbps cellular broadband system, nationwide, for a flat rate of $79/month.
The lead shifted back to Verizon a few months ago when they sprang a bombshell, announcing a rollout of nationwide CDMA 1X EV-DO coverage, starting this summer. EV-DO, with a peak data rate of around 2.4 Mb/s, and an effective 300-500kbps, promises to deliver real "wireless DSL" — without new 5 Mhz wide channels. But high data users could limit the capacity of the system…and it’s not called Data Only for nothing. Subscribers must subscribe to a separate voice service.
That’s why designers continue to look toward EV-DV and IMT-2000 (3G) implementations. Users can share channels with both voice and video. But full-blown 3G is expensive. It requires a fork lift upgrade
Will Sprint follow with EV-DO or wait for EV-DV? Will AT&T and Cingular pull out all the stops with full blown "3G" service? And what about Nextel and T-Mobile? Will T-Mobile integrate GPRS and WiFi or will Nextel offer Flarion? Nobody knows what will happen. It’s too early in the race.
Now the Wall Street Journal says Cingular will build a 3G cellular system (UMTS). Four trial cities have been scheduled for UMTS by AT&T Wireless. Cingular might take until 2006 or 2007 for broad availability of "3G", with testing beginning in Atlanta this summer, says the Wall Street Journal.
But maybe they’re not actually talking about UMTS. Maybe it’s HSDPA.
Dan O’Shea in Telephony says HSDPA may be GSM’s LONG ANSWER TO EV-DO.
“HSDPA is a natural evolution of the 3G UMTS standard,” said John Leonard, director of UMTS portfolio product management at Lucent Technologies. “If you’re competing in a market and EV-DO is there, no other technology right now competes with it. The GSM guys are going to have to counter [Verizon Wireless' launch] with something more competitive.”
HSDPA was part of the 3GPP WCDMA/UMTS standard Release 5 approved back in 1999, when it seemed that investment in the technology could lie right around the corner, an expectation that eventually disappeared as carriers slowed their mobile data evolutions.
HSDPA can be implemented mostly as a software upgrade in UMTS networks, though some hardware might be required in other cases. HSDPA is expected to have an average data rate of about 4 Mb/s to 8 Mb/s, making it at least twice the data rate of EV-DO.
The technology also could eventually reach peak data rates near 14 Mb/s, according to Leonard, though the standard calls for a peak speed of 10 Mb/s.
At the Wireless 2004 trade show in March, vendors were buzzing about HSDPA because they believe that competitive pressure will lend new urgency to long-delayed carrier investments in both UMTS and HSDPA.
“Verizon making its EV-DO announcement really changes the landscape for EDGE, UMTS and HSDPA,” said Dave Murashige, vice president of strategic marketing for wireless networks at Nortel Networks. “HSDPA is getting a strong push forward now, and UMTS with it.”
But keep an eye on IEEE 802.16e and 802.20. When these mobile standards hit their stride, around 2006-2008, many observers say they’ll pull ahead due to their "everything over IP" approach. When the infrastructure is (basically) an Ethernet access point, with VoIP, costs will plummet and speeds will soar.
The players are pounding the track, mud is flying, and the race is neck and neck down the final stretch. The crowd is on its feet…this is anybody’s race!
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