The latest edition of the Unstrung Insider is just too juicey to pass up. Here’s most of what they say:
Unstung predicts a renaissance for the fixed wireless market with the forthcoming WiMax specification in 2005 (see WiMax: Last Mile Smiles and WiMax: How Far? How Fast?).
But they also suggest that the fixed wireless boom may come too late for some of the companies currently involved with the technology.
| 2Q02 | 3Q02 | 4Q02 | 1Q03 | 2Q03 | 3Q03 | 4Q03 | 1Q04 | |
| Airspan | ($10.20) | ($5.00) | ($4.70) | ($5.60) | ($10.40) | ($6.80) | ($6.70) | ($5.40) |
| Alvarion | ($5.00) | ($5.00) | ($5.40) | ($4.00) | ($5.90) | ($2.10) | $0.80 | $1.40 |
| Ceragon | ($3.00) | ($3.30) | ($3.00) | ($2.10) | ($1.10) | ($0.70) | ($0.30) | $0.40 |
| Harris | ($5.80) | ($7.30) | ($8.20) | ($0.80) | ($10.60) | ($2.20) | ($1.60) | ($2.50) |
| P-Com | ($6.70) | ($5.80) | ($22.10) | ($10.40) | ($6.00) | $9.40 | ($5.90) | ($2.40) |
| Proxim | ($6.70) | ($31.90) | ($142.1) | ($9.30) | ($47.20) | ($36.60) | ($34.40) | ($15.80) |
| SR Telecom | ($2.50) | ($2.60) | ($4.20) | ($7.90) | ($7.20) | ($15.00) | ($12.20) | ($15.10) |
| WaveRider | ($1.40) | ($6.00) | ($0.90) | ($0.30) | ($0.10) | ($1.00) | ($3.70) | ($1.60) |
| Wi-LAN | ($8.00) | ($10.20) | ($2.00) | ($0.73) | $0.30 | ($0.70) | ($0.40) | |
| Source: company data, Unstrung Insider | ||||||||
Alvarion Ltd., Brown notes, is the only profitable vendor in the sector, although “breakeven is in sight” for Airspan Networks, Harris Corp., and Wi-LAN Inc.
The spike in profitability in the third quarter 2003 for P-Com Inc. in fact relates to a capital infusion into the normally loss-making company.
Even though the coming of WiMax is expected to be a tonic for the fixed wireless industry in general, the smaller vendors in the market may not be the main beneficiaries. For, as Brown notes, major vendors such as Alcatel SA, Motorola Inc., and Siemens AG are now also starting to focus on WiMax.
“There are simply too many small vendors in the BWA sector,” writes Brown. “Consolidation and business failure look inevitable.”
