Predictions for 2006
Here are a few casual predictions for 2006. For better or worse.
- AT&T/SBC Buys (a piece) of Echostar. The SBC/ATT thrust to deliver television to the home can’t be done in rural areas. Overbuilding urban areas often doesn’t pencil out. Partnering with Echostar does. They’ll add 5.8 GHz WiMax for a triple play. Cheap. Nationwide.
- MSN Buys (a piece) of DirecTV. Same deal. Triple play. Clearwire provides the backhaul. With Mobile WiMax, DirecTV/Clearwire is positioned for a “quad play” in 2007. T-Mobile may play, too.
- Verizon Buys 700 Mhz from Aloha Partners. Verizon will offer broadband wireless via Flarion/MediaFlo starting next year (2007).
- Sprint and Google provide City Zones. These WiFi zones will be free with cable modem service. Cable companies provide infrastructure support.
- Yahoo Becomes a Global IPTV Provider. Deals with SES Global, Bollywood and independent studios provide a turnkey VOD package with 10,000 titles.
- Cingular falls to Number Two. After spending billions in infrasture and promotion, the realization sinks in; UMTS isn’t as cost/effective as EV-DO Rev A from Sprint and Verizon. EV-DO Rev B (the multi-carrier version of Rev A) is on track to be published in the first quarter of this year, with the first deployments expected in 2008.
- 802.11n Gets Ratified. The IEEE approves an 802.11n standard and actual “pre-802.11n” products are available by the end of the year. They deliver 100+Mbps service and Wireless HDTV around the house.
- Wireless Video iPod. Features WiFi and 3G downloads as well as DVB-H and MediaFLO options.
- Bluetooth Dies. It’s replaced by an UWB standard for “wireless Firewire” and “wireless USB”
- Voice Becomes Free. Data becomes cheap. Muniwireless expands. Cable providers and satellite companies remain profitable but telco stockholders panic.
- NSA’s Trailblazer exposed. The scope of the distributed processing operation which datamines fiber hubs around the country, is shown to involve most telcos.
- Another Pacific Telecom Conference, another satellite down. PTC gathers in Hawaii in a couple of weeks. It’s getting predictable.







