Broadband wireless looks good to market analyst Maravedis who has a new Research Report out; WiMAX and Broadband Wireless (Sub-11GHz) Worldwide Market Analysis and Trends 2006-2012 (pdf).
Currently there are some 250 million broadband subscribers worldwide, up from 130 million at the end of 2004, says Maravedis, while number of mobile subscribers worldwide reached over 2 billion at the end of 2005. That number is expected to reach 3.96 billion by 2011. Broadband wireless will get its share, says Maravedis.
Key Findings in their $2999 report:
- Some 1.3 million broadband CPEs and over 48,000 base station sectors were shipped in 2005.
- In 2005, the access market reached US$635 million and the point-to-point backhaul market reached US$117 million.
- Alvarion remains the access-market leader, with a 22.6% market share, followed by Motorola Canopy and IP Wireless.
- EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Asia), which represented 30.6% of overall 2005 broadband equipment sales, continues to represent the largest market opportunity, but Asia and North America will overtake it by 2007.
- Shipments of OFDM-based product already accounted for 31% of broadband equipment sales in 2005, up from 18% in 2004. By 2012, its share will grow to 90% with the adoption of WiMAX.
- WiMAX-certified equipment is expected to reach $140 million in 2006. With large volumes, WiMAX chipsets could sell for as little as US$10 by 2012, and other WiMAX components could benefit from these mass volumes as well.
- Outdoor WiMAX CPE will be phased out in 2008 with indoor CPEs representing the bulk of shipments. The cost of indoor CPE will fall to US$75 by that year, which will in turn boost the proliferation of WiMAX.
- Base station costs are more complex due to the variety of types and scale, but the average cost will fall under US$10,000 by 2012. However, base stations are less of a factor in the economic equation for operator deployments.
- 5.8 GHz certified equipment will become available in 2007.
More than 100 million users still access the internet with dial-up, and more than 900 million use the internet occasionally but do not subscribe to a monthly service. The opportunity for BWA/WiMAX to serve those who want to switch to broadband service is huge in many parts of the world where wireline technologies may not be feasible, says Maravedis.
Whether it is 3G, 802.16-2005 or TD-CDMA, the success of mobile broadband will be driven by the development of user-friendly applications and handsets says the Maravedis WiMAX Analysis and Trends Report. The report is now in its 4th Edition.
