“One day things will be better”.
– Paradise Now
Mobile WiMAX is the next Iridium, says analyst Jane Zweig, CEO of The Shosteck Group. Motorola’s $6 billion Iridium satellite phone system was purchased in 2001 by a group of private investors for $25 million.
Like Iridium’s early backers, Mobile WiMAX proponents are ignoring the growing maturity and evolution of existing mobile- and residential- broadband technologies that already enjoy a large base of users and scale, she contends.Not so, says In-Stat analyst Daryl Schoolar. Cellular-data and Wi-Fi hot-spot providers face serious competition. WiMAX providers such as Sprint, he added, would also be in a good position to offer wireless mobile and residential broadband service along with home VoIP service, he noted.
In the United States, Clearwire and Sprint plan to offer Mobile WiMAX, with Sprint targeting a rollout to 100 million users by the end of 2008.
Don’t bet on it, says Zweig. “Just as did the Iridium community before it, the WiMAX community is failing to take into account how established technologies will evolve and improve over time.” Motorola’s Iridium venture “failed to take into account the competitive environment”. By the time Iridium could launch, conventional cellular would have captured almost all of its [Iridium's] potential market,” she explained.
But, according to an In-Stat survey of more than 1,220 early adopters, when price was excluded as a factor, 50.8 percent said they were extremely or very interested in using WiMAX with a laptop, while 29 percent were interested in cellular data, and 19.6 percent were interested in Wi-Fi.
Then there’s “4G”.
In five years, both CDMA and W-CDMA backers may have to dump their cellular technology for OFDM anyway. Sprint has a head start with WiMAX — and the spectrum to make it happen. Intel is forecasting WiMax will reach 150 million potential customers by 2008, 650 million by 2010 and 1.3 billion by 2012. Wireless Internet access will account for 49% of all broadband subscribers worldwide by 2012, up from 17% in 2007, according to Informa Telecoms & Media’s “WiMAX Broadband Convergence: Emerging Fixed, Portable & Mobile Revenue Opportunities” report.
Will LTE in the AWS band cut it? First they’ll need to develop a standard. Then they’ll have to cut over their W-CDMA gear to LTE’s OFDM. WiMaxians say AT&T and Verizon have five years — to do or die.
The clock is ticking.
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