Gabriel Brown, Chief Analyst for Unstrung Insider, has some real insight (as always) on 700 MHz scenarios. According to Brown, Verizon and AT&T already have 800 Mhz (cell) towers in place so their infrastructure investment would be less. He thinks they’re more likely to go with the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) – LTE (wikipedia) standard rather than WiMAX. Either way, it’s a lot of money for a small piece of spectrum.
Google estimated it would cost $12 Billion plus and take 3 years to build out a 700 MHz “C” Block network. But Verizon has the infrastructure in place from their cellular operation now — and a piece of the IWN contract to build out 700 Mhz for the Fed’s 2-way radios.
The outlook is mixed, according to The Unstrung Insider report, 700MHz Technology Options: Reshaping the U.S. Wireless Market:
With the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) set to hold the world’s first major auction of 700 MHz spectrum in February next year, what are the prospects for WiMax? With the WiMAX Forum working on 700 MHz system profiles, equipment should be available for deployments in 2009. And, clearly, there is pent-up demand for WiMax, notably in the wireless ISP sector.
However, there has been no word yet on what specific combinations of bandwidth and duplexing methods will be supported in commercial, certified equipment. And with most of the spectrum configured as paired bands, the WiMax community quickly needs a convincing story on FDD (frequency division duplex) to supplement its focus on TDD (time division duplex).
The most obvious place WiMax will play is with the local independent operators that have a chance of winning some of the more than 800 regional A and B Block licenses (each has 2×6 MHz). Vendors such as Airspan Networks and SOMA Networks already offer 700 MHz products and would be well positioned here.
The outlook for WiMax in flagship C Block (2×11 MHz) is less clear. With an auction process designed to enable a new entrant to acquire nationwide spectrum, it’s an ideal opportunity for WiMax backers, and supporters of disruptive wireless business models, to prove their worth. But it would take a huge investment just to acquire the spectrum and deploy a bare bones network.
Even with a conservative view of the costs involved it’s hard to imagine an investor with enough stomach make a new entrant play. Assuming the C Block licenses sells at or around their aggregate reserve price of $4.6 billion, and then assuming $20 per person in capex for the network rollout, it would cost a minimum of $10 billion to meet the 75 percent of population coverage requirement. In reality, it’s likely to cost much more than that to create a network that, regardless of technology, will have substantially less capacity than today’s 2G and 3G networks.
There’s no doubt that the likes of Intel, Google, and Apple have deep pockets, but would they plow money into a heavily loss-making venture over at least five years in the hope of selling more chipsets, advertising, and phones? Probably not.
Perhaps the best chance for these “disruptors” would be through some kind of high-tech consortium making a play on the networking-sharing concept, where capacity is sold at a wholesale rate to individual service providers. This could involve partnering with someone like, say, Frontline Wireless, to make a bid on combining the C Block with the nationwide D Block and public safety band. But even then, would such a venture choose WiMax? Not necessarily. Motorola, one of WiMax’s biggest backers, is advocating 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) LTE technology for public safety.
Bidders Net total of high bids 1. T-Mobile $4.2 billion 2. Verizon Wireless $2.8 billion 3. SpectrumCo $2.4 billion 4. MetroPCS $1.4 billion 5. Cingular $1.3 billion 6. Cricket $710 million 7. Denali Spectrum $365 million 8. Barat Wireless $127 million 9. AWS Wireless $116 million 10. Atlantic Wireless $81 million Click here to find out who is backing these bidders. The real wild cards in this auction are the cable companies. One potential scenario would be for SpectrumCo LCC — a joint venture of Comcast, Cox, Time Warner Cable, and Advance/Newhouse — to bid on all or some of the C Block licenses and combine this with the Advanced Wireless Services (AWS) spectrum they won last year.
The upshot is that well-connected sources interviewed for the Insider report hold out hope that finance can be put together for a WiMax-friendly player to make a concerted bid in next year’s auctions. But at this point, it’s far from obvious that any one company has the stomach, or the deep pockets, to take on the big cellular players.
My own prediction a couple of months ago was:
- Google seems best positioned to monetize the 22Mhz “C” block
- Frontline seems positioned to take the shared public service “D” band
- AT&T and Verizon could be relegated to the lower 700 Mhz bands, on the “A” and “B” blocks
- I’ll go with AT&T for mobile television on channel 56, the single “E” block. (Qualcomm’s MediaFlo already has channel 55 on “D”).
- Since Aloha Partners already owns most of the two “C” blocks, perhaps some kind of deal will be struck.
- Verizon seems to have most to gain (as an IWN partner), so I’d give them the advantage for the “B” block on the lower 700 Mhz spectrum. Maybe cut a deal with Aloha. (AT&T doesn’t have the IWN advantage).
Now, with AT&T buying Aloha Partners’ 700 MHz spectrum, the onus is on Verizon.
Here’s how I figure it will now shake out:
- It will be a battle between Google and Verizon for the 22 MHz “C” block on the Upper 700 MHz band. For the “D” block (with shared public safety use), public service operators have stated they want an “open” platform, giving the advantage to Frontline Wireless.
- The looser of the battle in the Upper 700 MHz band will likely rumble with cable and independents on the Lower 700 MHz band. They include the smaller “A” and “B” blocks. Block “A” might be worth less than projected if a new mobile TV channel on Channel 56 (Block “E”) is established adjacent to Block “A”.
- Qualcomm already operates 50,000 watt MediaFLO transmitters for mobile television on Channel 55, and AT&T now owns Channels 54 & 59. Channel 56 is an orphaned 6 Mhz channel, most likely used for mobile broadcasting. That could cause sensitivity problems for Block “A” communications.
Wouldn’t it be nice if everyone could agree on a single platform. Charles Townsend was probably right when he suggested that a handset must cost under $200 and service under $50/month to succeed.
Which is better — LTE or Mobile WiMAX? Doesn’t matter. Pick one.
Related DailyWireless articles include; AT&T Buys 700MHz from Aloha, Google: We Got Trouble. . . In 700 Mhz, AT&T, Verizon & Frontline Want 700Mhz Changes, Sprint Exits SpectrumCo, Nortel + Leap Wireless, MetroPCS & Leap Announce Merger, MetroPCS: Bring on 700MHz, AWS Visual Guide, T-Mobile Plans UMTS, Cyren Call to Manage Public Safety Spectrum, National Broadband Policy?, WiMAX World 2007, Free Cellular Service, Google: Now it’s Transpacific Fiber, Verizon Jumping to LTE?, Ads on Cellphones, Cable Delivered MuniFi, ICO Wants Its Mobile TV – via DVB-SH, 2.1GHz for MuniFi?, 700Mhz Auction: Jan 16, 2008, FCC Finalizes Rules on 700MHz: Limited Open Access, No Wholesale Requirement
