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The U.S. femtocell market is a “crapshoot,” according to the latest Unstrung Insider report, because operators have yet to figure out how the tiny home base stations will work in their networks and how they can make money from them.


Major femtocell deployments are unlikely until 2009 or even 2010 in North America as operators conduct limited trials this year, according to the report.

The issues that operators and vendors have to deal with this year are technical and strategic. While operators and vendors toil with challenges like interference with the macro cellular network and integration with OSS/BSS systems, operators also strive to build a business case for the home base stations.

But the main barrier to early deployments this year is cost. General consensus among vendors and operators is that femtocells need to retail for less than $100 to be a viable mass market product.

A case in point is Sprint’s Airave femtocell from Samsung (above) which is the only commercial femtocell service available right now. The report finds that Sprint subsidizes the Airave femtocell to the tune of about $250 per unit. The femtocell costs $300, and Sprint sells it for $49.99. But Sprint’s wholesale cost could even be higher than $300, the report states.

Here’s a sampling of Unstung’s femto news from Vegas:

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