If you’re not scared of them, you’re in big trouble.
- Fast, Cheap and Out of Control
Mobile WiMax may become a spent technology even before it gains any commercial traction, a market research group has warned.
According to Frost & Sullivan (press release), unless spectrum auctions and commercial mobile WiMax rollouts gather momentum before the end of this year, the market scope for the broadband wireless technology “will be insignificant.”
The researchers also suggest the technology is facing a range of challenges that are likely to make it unfeasible as a mobile “access” technology.
However, Frost & Sullivan believes that the work carried out on Mobile WiMax has the potential to spur new ventures, which could potentially lead the computer industry’s Mobile WiMax to merge with cellular’s Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology.
I doubt it.
There are over 350 different WiMax trials and/or deployments going on around the world today. Engineering and operational arguments for Mobile WiMAX look compelling:
- Money. Data-centric WiMAX is claimed to be one tenth the cost of voice-centric LTE.
- Fixed and Mobile WiMAX are global standards with low royalties. LTE is not a standard yet.
- Mobile WiMAX is shipping world-wide, with a 2-3 year lead over LTE.
- WiMAX basestations are now available in the unlicensed 5.8 GHz and 3.650 GHz bands for under $2K.
- Some 200 Mhz is available on the 2.6 GHz band
- Where will AT&T or Verizon get 200 MHz? Their AWS and 700MHz bands with 12MHz for LTE are puny by comparison — and expensive. AT&T spent $16B on 700MHz and Verizon spent $9.36 Billion for 12 MHz.
- Clearwire has 120 MHz in most major markets. And they got first dibs on high capacity backhaul to feed it. Other carriers must fight over frequency scraps for backhaul.
- Clearwire expects to reach 140 million people within 30 months, before consumer LTE ships. Verizon is spending $23bn on Fios to pass 12 million homes this year.
WiMAX Forum projects 133 million WiMAX users globally by 2012. Juniper Research predicts 24 million LTE subscribers by 2012.
- Global roaming. The 2.6 GHz band won’t require different cards and services, unlike cellular carriers which use different frequencies and standards (GSM/HSPA/CDMA/EV-DO).
- TDD COFDMA is more efficient. FDD-based LTE uses COFDM down and Single Carrier FDMA up. With TDD, one channel isn’t “listening” all the time, one radio is cheaper and uses less power.
- Mobile WiMAX supports both Matrix A and Matrix B MIMO. Matrix A duplicates data on both antennas (better range), Matrix B utilizes each channel independently (faster speed).
- WiMAX forum expects 100+ certified products by year end. How many HSPA or CDMA Rev A cards can you name?
- Today’s 802.16e will be upward compatible with the 1 Gbps/100Mbps 802.16m standard. LTE requires new handsets and basestations. Today’s phones won’t be compatible.
- Beamforming. More effective power, more range, and less interference.
- Adaptive modulation for every user, automatically ratcheting between QPSK, 16QAM, 64QAM and 256QAM.
- Advanced forward error correction using Convolutional Turbo Codes and Hybrid ARQ (HARQ) are used in noisy environments.
- Subchannelization. OFDMA can ratchet between fewer carriers with more power (for penetration) or more carriers with less power (faster).
- Single Cell Frequency Reuse (pdf) reduces interference and the need for frequency coordination between towers.
- Intel. WiMAX cards will come “free” with laptops, processors lighten chip requirements.
- Mobile TV comes free, with unicasting AND multicasting. No tuner required.
- Cellular voice is reaching saturation, with 80% penetration. Data is the next big thing. In 2007 cellular data revenues rose 53% over 2006. Mobility is becoming data-centric, not voice-centric.
- Mass market. WiFi growth is phenomenal. Motorola says more than 223 million homes now have WiFi and there are over 127 million WiFi hotspots. Both 802.11n and WiMAX use MIMO and can share the same antennas. WiMAX can be cheaper and faster than DSL.
It seems there isn’t a trick in the book that hasn’t been thrown at Mobile WiMAX. Add it up. What have we got? Who knows…but judgment day is coming. Major carriers should be scared.
AT&T spent $20 billion between 2005 and 2008 upgrading its wireless network to HSPA, says Unstrung, while Verizon spent over $45 billion on EV-DO over the last eight years. Everything must go with LTE. Verizon also spent $9.36 Billion for 12 MHz on 700 mhz, with AT&T spending a similar amount. Clearwire has 10 times the spectrum.
Mobile WiMAX will deliver Wi-Fi speed with cellular range. It will be inside a million little devices and applications that no one has yet conceived of. Plan on it. Fast, cheap and out of control.
Dailywireless has more on 4G: War to End Wars
