The Pew Internet & American Life Project’s third survey (pdf) explores where the Internet is headed and concludes that mobile devices–more like smartphones than laptops–will be the primary connecting tool for people throughout the world by 2020.
Of the 6.6 billion people in the world today, only 1.2 billion have access to–and use–the Internet, according to the United Nations. Among the key points:
- It took 20 years for the first billion mobile phones to sell, just four years for the second, and only two years for the third.
- There will be 4 billion cell phones (some people own more than one phone) in the world by the end of 2008–only 15% of which are Internet-enabled, according to Wireless Intelligence.
- In the future, mobile devices will be more computer than telephone, and will be more about the connective applications.
Some of the experts surveyed insist that by 2020, there will be a new paradigm; a new killer app for communications technology that will change everything. Concern is voiced about polarization, monitoring and manipulation that will coexist with all the good that can come from future Internet developments.
The report entitled “Future of the Internet III” is built around respondents’ responses to scenarios stretching to the year 2020.
