ABI Research’s new study, WiMAX Market Analysis and Forecasts, forecasts big growth for 802.16-2004 and 802.16e-2005.
While Clearwire and UQ Communications will receive much of the attention given to WiMAX services, there are many 802.16e networks being built around the world for fixed and portable use that can evolve for mobile use later, says ABI.
ABI claims WiMAX subscriber revenue will grow by 4,500+% globally in 2009.
Just a week ago, In-Stat suggested that, while both WiMAX and LTE will be successful, WiMAX will have a sizable advantage near term. In-Stat predicts that, by 2013, LTE will grow to more than 23 million subscribers, but WiMAX will be in 82 million PCs.
LTE, as a packet-based network, will not by itself support traditional circuit-switched telephony. The aim of a new group, Voice over LTE via Generic Access (VoLGA Forum), is to define a set of specifications to deliver circuit-switched voice and messaging services over LTE networks.
Clearwire’s conference call this afternoon should have several major announcements including which cities are planned for coverage this year. So far, Mobile WiMAX is being offered in just two cities, Baltimore and Portland, Ore.
ThinkEquity believes Clearwire will launch in nine markets this year. Clearwire has broadly hinted it will offer WiMax service in Atlanta, Las Vegas, Grand Rapids, Michigan, Chicago, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Dallas/Ft Worth and Providence, Rhode Island, as well as upgrading their current pre-WiMAX cities which currently serve over 400,000 subscribers.
UPDATE: Clearwire today announced Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Results:
- First “Clear” Mobile WiMAX Market Comes Out of the Gate Strong With Initial Sales More Than Double Any of Clearwire’s Prior 47 Market Launches
- Mobile WiMAX Network Expansion Under Way Enabling Coverage of Up To 120 Million Americans Across 80 Markets in 2010
- Atlanta, Las Vegas, Chicago, Charlotte, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Honolulu, Philadelphia, and Seattle Among Cities Going “Clear” in 2009
- New York, Boston, Washington, D.C., Houston and the San Francisco Bay Area Lead List of Planned 2010 Launches
- Clearwire to Launch Dual Mode 3G/4G Modem This Summer Giving “Clear” Subscribers Access to a Nationwide 3G Mobile Data Network
“During 2009, we expect to launch our Clear™ branded mobile broadband services in a number of new markets such as Las Vegas, Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia and Dallas/Ft. Worth and in our largest existing markets, namely Baltimore, Seattle, Honolulu and Charlotte,” Wolff added. “We are working to significantly extend our wireless 4G network to many more markets, giving us the ability to cover as many as 120 million people with true broadband mobility by the end of 2010,.”
“In this difficult economic climate, our objective is to continue to balance the prudent use of our significant financial resources with our desire to take full advantage of the market opportunity that is in front of us, and we intend to do just that. This means retaining the flexibility to accelerate or decelerate our expansion based on our own successes and the macro economic environment.
Today’s announcement seems to track Clearwire’s original plan (above), which was announced with the merger of Sprint and other entities about 6 months ago.
In contrast, Verizon’s Dick Lynch expects to launch around 25 to 30 markets in 2010 with 27 percent of their wireless revenue today coming from data. Clearwire plans to reach 120 million Americans by 2010, while Verizon will likely remain in trial phase with pre-standard LTE gear for a couple more years.
Clearwire expects to spend $1.5 to $1.9 billion in 2009 and plans to have enough cash resources into 2011 (driven largely by the pace of expansion). Clearwire now has 475,000 subs with Q4 ARPU $39.70, an increase due to VoIP and PC Card sales. They expect close to 100 mobile WiMAX devices – in laptops, netbooks, handhelds, USBs and modems – by the end of the year.
The WiMax Forum claims 430 million people can now get WiMAX service. By the end of 2010, the group expects 800 million people to be in range of WiMax service.
This year, HSPA and EV-DO providers say they now have 130 million paying subscribers around the world while the worldwide WiMAX subscriber base was only about 3 million by the third quarter of 2008. By 2010, Clearwire projects 4.6 millon subs in the United States and close to 20 million subs by 2014.
