Maravedis just completed a survey of the top 22 most promising WIMAX operators, those who they believe will make or break WiMAX in the next two years.
These operators include Clearwire and Sprint, but also operators who currently enjoy a relatively small subscriber base but for whom Maravedis believes there is great potential. Those include Scartel (Russia) and “strategic” operators including: UQ Communications (Japan), Far EasTone (Taiwan), BSNL (India) and Telmex International.
- 47% of current networks account for less than 10,000 subscribers
- 75% of operators have more than 10 million POP covered
- Operators are generating an average ARPU of US$35 for residential services and US$93 for business services
- 33% of operators use only microwave radios for their backhaul
- 52% plan to deploy femtocells in the next 24 months
Maravedis believes that these 22 players will contribute nearly 2.5 million subscribers by the end of 2009 – up from 1.24 million today – and close to 4 million by the end of 2010. A big share of these subscribers will come from large proprietary networks that are expected to convert to WiMAX by 2010 such as Clearwire’s in the United States and Inukshuk’s in Canada.
Indian Wimax subscribers will reach 27.5 million by 2012, and will become a $13 billion market, according to a report from the Wimax Forum. They predict by 2012, Indians will represent 20% of the global user base. There are currently just 4.5 million broadband subscribers in India, despite a population of 1.2 billion.
Research and Markets says Taiwanese WiMAX CPE fourth-quarter volume inched up just 4.2% sequentially, considerably lower than previous forecasts. In the first and second quarters of 2009, Taiwanese WiMAX CPE shipment volume, though seeing continuous growth, is expected to be lower than the level in the second half of 2008. It is projected that Taiwanese WiMAX CPE shipments will take off in the second half of 2009.
Wireless broadband technology will be able to withstand the current economic downturn says the WiMAX Forum. They estimate at least 100 more operators will launch commercial services this year.
The WiMAX Forum says WiMAX now covers 430 million people (POPS), globally and are on a path to nearly double to 800 million people by end of 2010 with 18 million subs by 2012. In-Stat forecasts LTE will have 23 million subscribers by 2013, but nearly 82 million mobile PCs with WiMax will ship in 2013.
The forum expects for WiMAX to continue to capitalize on its head start on LTE. Still, Dr. Mohammad Shakouri, the forum’s VP of marketing, said, “Due to the financial situation, the growth rate of deployments will slow down. Everyone is watching their cash.”
Shiv Bakhshi, an IDC analyst, believes WiMAX and LTE will serve different segments of the market. Bakhshi said WiMAX will be a strong player in developing countries. However, the technology will have trouble competing in developed countries because of other broadband technology that is already in place and the momentum LTE has gained among the top wireless providers.
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