In the world according to research firm Analysys Mason, the Future of WiMAX Is Bleak, reports Stacey Higginbotham of GigaOm.
Google and Intel, among others, have already written off billions of dollars they had invested in Clearwire. This does not look good for WiMAX. Also, it appears that the North American CDMA operators may move to LTE, rather than to WiMAX.
Ericsson’s purchase of Nortel’s interests in CDMA and LTE will encourage CDMA operators to shift to LTE, creating greater acceptance of LTE in North America. Huawei is strongly promoting LTE and has recently opened up a new LTE laboratory in Richardson, Texas, where operators can familiarise themselves with the technology.
In developed European markets, operators are almost certainly upgrading their 3G technologies to 4G LTE in order to match the rising demand for data. We believe that WiMAX has a role to play and will continue, but mostly in developing countries. Because of the limited potential of these markets, there will be some consolidation of vendors and providers along the way.
Well, look — nobody ever expected WiMAX to overtake the cellular industry. LTE might get ten times the penetration of WiMAX, but WiMAX should get a lot more “wireless DSL” business. WiMAX and LTE aren’t that much different, but WiMAX TD-OFDMA is data-centric, while LTE is voice-centric.
Look at the facts:
- Clear has 120 Mhz of spectrum in big cities. Cellcos have, perhaps, 20Mhz of AWS and 20Mhz at 700Mhz.
- Cellular companies have 1/3 the capacity. Now slice that in half for FDD.
- LTE is fine for symetrical voice – you get more voices in a channel. But data is the future.
- Sprint, as a 50% owner, could always utilize some of their spectrum for LTE. So what?
- Both LTE and WiMAX require forklift upgrades. Both will be on “greenfield” spectrum.
- WiMAX infrastructure is cheaper than LTE. Voice and data ride on an “open” pipe. Like Ethernet.
- LTE is not “4G” — it’s an interim standard. The ITU will define “4G” in the next year or two.
- One of those ITU 4G standards will almost certainly be 802.16m, with up to 100Mbps (mobile). It could be ready to go by 2012.
- LTE must use licensed bands. WiMAX can run on 700, 900, 2.1, 2.3, 2.6, 3.65, 5.8 GHz, and other licensed or unlicensed frequency bands. Find a need and fill it. Mix and match.
Look. If you want to put WiFi on 1,000 bus stops, what would YOU use for backhaul? LTE might cost $50-$60/month with 5-10 Gig monthly caps. WiMAX delivers unlimited service for half that. Today.
I believe that Clear will do well. It may be a niche player — but a significant one.
Related Dailywireless articles include; Sweden Tests LTE, Verizon LTE: 30 US Markets by 2010, Huawei: Clearwire WiMAX Supplier , Clear Launches 10 New Markets, Doubles Upload Speed, Korea’s WiBro in Trouble?, Verizon Calls on LTE, LTE Marketing Ramps Up, Mobile Supercomputing , China Mobile: TD-SCDMA to Penetrate 70% of Country, Huawei: Clear Sailing on WiMAX?, and Mobile World Congress: HSPA, WiMAX & LTE Faceoff.
