It’s a free for all — Ted Nugent
US prepaid operator MetroPCS yesterday announced it has selected Ericsson and Samsung as vendors for the launch of its LTE network in the second half of next year.
Ericsson will be providing network infrastructure (radio access and core) while Samsung will be the provider of its initial LTE handset device. “We anticipate to begin offering our 4G LTE services and a dual-mode LTE/CDMA smartphone in our major metropolitan markets in late 2010,” commented Roger D. Linquist, president, CEO and chairman of the board of MetroPCS, in a statement.
MetroPCS is currently a CDMA operator. It’s the sixth-largest mobile operator in the US, with 6.3 million connections and a 2.3 percent market share (according to Wireless Intelligence).
In many of it’s new AWS 1700Mhz areas, such as New York City and Boston, MetroPCS is building out it’s network using a combination of macro cell sites, as well as a Distributed Antenna System which splits the transmitted power among several antenna elements, which are sometimes mounted on utility poles (right).
MetroPCS says it expects to use PCS, AWS and 700MHz spectrum in the future. MetroPCS bought a single 700 MHz, A Block license in Boston, during the 2008 FCC auction.
Rival Verizon Wireless plans to have LTE networks running in 20-30 markets in the second half of 2010, with nationwide buildout complete by early 2014, mostly in the 700 MHz band.
Both MetroPCS and Verizon are expected to be among the first operators worldwide to commercially deploy the next-generation mobile technology. Ericsson and Samsung have a similar contract at Verizon.
MetroPCS and Leap Wireless (Cricket) both reported annual double-digit connections growth in 1Q09. However, by 2Q09 growth at both MetroPCS and Leap Wireless tanked as Sprint/Boost took a 40.5 percent share of prepaid net additions in the quarter, according Wireless Intelligence (pdf).
Cricket Wireless today announced two new, all-inclusive nationwide voice plans: a $40 unlimited voice and a $45 unlimited voice, “mobile web” and directory assistance. The new plans will include all fees and taxes and provides unlimited Internet access without a signed contract or credit check.
T-Mobile USA is also being hurt by aggressive discounts from Sprint, Leap and MetroPCS. But what about the rumored Deutsche Telekom/Sprint merger? Furgetaboutit, says Reuters.
Leap (Cricket) picked up 100 licenses in the FCC’s Advanced Wireless Services auction (AWS) at an aggregate cost of $984 million. Their AWS coverage compliments that of MetroPCS (below).
The situation has reignited long-standing speculation that MetroPCS and Leap could merge. Their merger talks failed two years ago. A combination of the two regional operators – which already have a roaming agreement in place – would create an operator with almost 11 million connections and near-nationwide coverage. Leap (Cricket) is also a CDMA operator.
Don’t forget that SpectrumCo (above), the venture among major cable companies (including Comcast, Time Warner and Cox), also paid $2.4B for 20 MHz AWS licenses covering most of the populated areas of the continental US.
The cable companys’ AWS investment in AWS spectrum (1.7/2.1GHz) appeared redundant when Comcast and Time-Warner invested another $1.6B in Clear’s WiMAX (at 2.6GHz). The advantage? Cable companies didn’t have to run a nationwide phone service, their Sprint partner could run it, and Sprint, unlike AT&T and Verizon, was not a potential television competitor. Cable could supply the mobile TV market with WiMAX.
Mobile data traffic is doubling every nine months, according to Cisco Systems.
By 2013, mobile traffic will hit 2 exabytes–2 million terabytes–per month. Cisco believes video will be responsible for the majority of the traffic growth between 2008 and 2013.
AT&T plans to begin deployment of HSPA 7.2 in six major U.S. cities this year, including Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles and Miami, with initial service availability expected in these markets by the end of the year. Verizon will build out LTE in its nationwide footprint within two or three years of the 2010 launch. It will continue to rely on its CDMA 1x network for voice traffic during its LTE rollout.
Ericsson has a 49 percent market share in HSPA, with 134 out of the 274 HSPA networks currently launched worldwide (pdf). Sprint is outsourcing network management to Ericsson.
Now, if Leap (Cricket) and Sprint announce support for LTE, all bets are off.
It’s a free for all.
Conceivably, cable operators could bail from their Clear partnership — even Sprint, which owns 51% of Clear. Cable operators could then use their $2.4B AWS spectrum investment and team with Leap/MetroPCS, T-Mobile or Sprint for LTE phone and data services. In this scenario, Clear, then acting as a holding company, might sell or lease back much of their 2.6 GHz spectrum holdings to other cellular operators for LTE deployments.
Big carriers in the US utilize about 20 MHz each for legacy 2G/3G service at 850 MHz and 1.9 GHz. That’s a total of 40 MHz. For LTE, an additional 20 Mhz might be available for “greenfield” deployment at 1.7/2.1GHz (the AWS band) and 700 MHz. That could total 20-40 MHz (more or less) dedicated to LTE, from a pool totaling near 80MHz of spectrum.
It may not be enough.
Clear says they have some 120Mhz available (at 2.6MHz) for WiMAX in big cities. While a defection by Sprint or the cable operators from Clear would upset the balance of power, Clear still has an inexpensive TDD delivery system — for the data-centric future — and holds the spectrum cards.
Clearwire will remain a WiMax operator for “the foreseeable future,” CEO Bill Morrow said at his 4G World keynote Wednesday, reports Unstrung.
“We are WiMax technology company that’s in deployment today; it is going to be that way for the foreseeable future,” Morrow said. “But we’re also a consumer technology company… If a good technology comes along, I can bolt that to my towers,” he added. “Do I believe that’s tomorrow, or the next year, or the year after? No, but we’re ready.”
Everybody’s waiting on Moorestown for the low-power Atom processor for phones. Of course, ARM’s Cortex-A9 will run at 2GHz, and will likely be inside many Android netbooks and smartphones by 2011.
Motorola says both LTE and WiMax are viable options and will end up co-existing. Reductions in the cost per byte coupled with speed are expected to drive new applications, including telematics, e-readers, machine-to-machine (M2M) communication, mobile IPTV and next-generation public safety networks.
