Everyone seems to be wringing their hands about the growth of data on wireless networks, especially Cisco, which is selling infrastructure gear, and the FCC, which is selling spectrum.
But there’s no question that demand for wireless data IS growing fast.
Smartphones like the iPhone, with the capability to snap and share photos or video, have generated most of this growth.
According to Cisco’s Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, the iPad and tablets like it generate 5 times more data traffic than the average smartphone.
Tablets are expected to add to this growth. Goldman Sachs figures tablets are increasing data demand by 30 percent per year and by 2020 will account for 17 percent of all mobile wireless data demand.
But if spectrum is in such short supply, you’d think AT&T’s shareholders wouldn’t spend $39 billion simply to eliminate a competitor. You’d think they’d buy spectrum.
Maybe AT&T will just raise prices. Crisis solved. Nevermind the FCC’s Annual report, on The State of Competition in the Wireless Industry, which concluded that the wireless industry is “not competitive,” due to continued consolidation.
Mobile broadband subscriptions are on track to surpass 1 billion in 2011 only months after reaching half a billion, according to Ericsson. There were 763 million broadband wireless subscribers in the world by the end of 2010, figures InStat.
According to In-Stat, unit shipments for smartphones will reach nearly 850 million by 2015.
Shipments of smartphones, tablets and other app-enabled devices will overtake PCs shipments in the next 18 months, says market research firm IDC. Shipments of personal computers will still continue to increase even as they are surpassed by other devices.
Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker previously predicted the shift to mobile (above). IDC predicts worldwide shipments of smartphones and media tablets will reach 284 million in 2010. In 2011, makers will ship 377 million of these devices, and in 2012, the number will reach 462 million shipments, exceeding PC shipments, says IDC.
In-Stat found that by 2015, more than two-thirds of all smartphones will be WCDMA (GSM-based), and LTE smartphones will make up only the small minority of annual handset shipments. In-Stat forecasts only 115 million LTE subscribers by 2014.
