Cisco has released its latest Visual Networking Index, an ongoing initiative to track and forecast global IP traffic. Cisco’s figures are somewhat self-serving, since they are the dominant provider of network equipment.
Cisco projects five major traffic milestones:
- 2012: Internet video will surpass 50 percent of consumer Internet traffic.
- 2012: The number of households generating over 1 terabyte per month of Internet traffic will reach 1 million.
- 2014: One-fifth of Internet video traffic will come from TVs, handsets, and other non-PC devices.
- 2015: Internet traffic from wireless devices will surpass the volume of traffic from wired devices.
- 2015: The annual run rate of global IP traffic will reach the zettabyte threshold (966 exabytes).
Three major traffic generator milestones:
- 2011: By the end of the year there will be more networked devices than people on earth.
- 2011: Digital screen surface area will reach 1 square foot per capita.
- 2015: There will be twice as many networked devices as people on earth.
Cisco projects mobile data traffic will increase globally 26 times between 2010 and 2015. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 92 percent between 2010 and 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes per month by 2015. Cisco’s projections are often used by companies to show why they need more spectrum.
Cisco predicts global mobile data traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2010 to 2015. Global mobile data traffic was 1 percent of total IP in 2010, and will be 8 percent of total IP traffic in 2015.
Cisco’s Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2010-2015, predicts:
- Global mobile data traffic will increase 26-fold between between 2010 and 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes per month by 2015, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 92 percent.
- There will be nearly one mobile device per person by 2015. There will be over 7.1 billion mobile-connected devices, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules, in 2015, approximately equal to the world’s population in 2015 (7.2 billion).
- Mobile network connection speeds will increase 10-fold by 2015. The average mobile connection speed (215 kbps in 2010) will grow at a CAGR of 60 percent, and will exceed 2.2 Mbps in 2015.
- Two-thirds of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video traffic by 2015. Mobile video traffic will more than double every year between 2010 and 2015.
- Mobile-connected tablets will generate as much traffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network did in 2010.
- The average smartphone will generate over 1 GB per month in 2015, a 16-fold increase over the 2010 average of 79 MB per month.
- Average handset usage will grow 31-fold between 2010 and 2015. The average handset (smartphones and basic handsets combined) will generate 367 MB per month by 2015, up from 12 MB per month in 2010.
- The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest mobile data traffic growth of any region at 129 percent CAGR, followed by Latin America at 111 percent and Central and Eastern Europe at 102 percent.
Globally, Cisco says the average mobile network connection speed in 2010 was 215 kbps. The average speed will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 60 percent, and will exceed 2.2 Mbps in 2015. Smartphone speeds, generally 3G and higher, are currently nearly five times higher than the overall average. Smartphone speeds will quadruple by 2015, reaching 4.4 Mbps.
Other market research organizations – without an interest in selling network gear – generally project more conservative growth.
The Yankee Group, for example, forecasts data growth about half of Cisco’s numbers.
Cisco concludes that operators must solve the challenge of monetizing video traffic while increasing infrastructure capital expenditures. Wireless operators are expected to meet the demand using microcells, covering a block or so, and by WiFi.
But asking 3 channels of unlicensed 2.4 GHz WiFi to handle the needs of cellular companies may impinge upon the ability of citizens to freely use unlicensed wireless networks. What the FCC ought to do is allocate another 100 MHz of “free” unlicensed spectrum – perhaps between 1.5 GHz and 3 GHz.
Municipalities might get half that spectrum for public services. In exchange, consumers might share the “D-Block” on 700 MHz instead of having it dedicated to first responders.
Free broadband should be a right for most citizens on this planet. Guaranteeing 1Mbps (wired) and 200Kbps (wireless) doesn’t seem difficult. The 700 Mhz and television band frequencies might deliver basic lifeline services. Satellites can provide tower backhaul for remote areas.
If you could deliver triple play for $365/yr, that’s a dollar a day. Ad revenue and micropayments might make free service profitable. A Microsoft Skype phone might deliver the goods. Like Free Wi-Fi. Like Freeview and Freesat. Cellular had its day.
People will talk. They’ll disagree, of course.
