Verizon Wireless said on Thursday that it plans to use Long Term Evolution (LTE) to upgrade its wireless network and will run tests of the technology in 2008.
Britain’s Vodafone, which owns 45 percent of Verizon Wireless, also plans to build a network based on LTE. A common network infrastructure will allow roaming between the services. Verizon has used Qualcomm-developed CDMA which is not compatible with the GSM/HSPA systems used by Vodaphone and other countries. GSM enjoys an 80% penetration world-wide, according to the GSM Association trade group. The number of LTE subs will approach 24 million by 2012, according to recent research by analyst firm Juniper Research.
Verizon conducted WiMAX trials with partner Vodafone as part of its 4G technology selection process, Verizon CTO Dick Lynch said Thursday. Lynch said Verizon weighed all options including CDMA’s Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB). But the 3.5 GHz frequencies of designated European bands have much lower penetration and shorter range than the Advanced Wireless Spectrum (AWS) frequencies that VZW currently holds and where it intends to initially launch its 4G network.
It’s bad news for Qualcomm’s competing UMB technology and backers of WiMax. AT&T Mobility will likely migrate to LTE as their 4G solution. T-Mobile, also in the GSM camp, is expected to follow suit. HSPA (High Speed Packet Access) is part of the GSM 3G network and is (predominately) a software upgrade of the network infrastructure. LTE is a forklift upgrade.
UMB is part of the 4G evolution path laid out by the 3rd Generation Partnership Project, which Qualcomm is largely responsible for founding. CDMA Rev. B is not so much a new technology as an added feature to existing EVDO Rev A, explains Telephony Magazine.
Rev B takes multiple 1.25 MHz channels into one super channel, allowing users to share the compounded capacity of the combined spectrum. Qualcomm’s UMB, also called Rev. C, incorporates OFDMA, CDMA and other air interface techniques with MIMO and advanced antenna technologies. UMB is expected to become commercially available on a global basis in 1H2009 (pdf).
The CDMA Development Group (CDG) today commented on Verizon Wireless’ announcement:
“CDMA2000 networks will continue to be a major source of their revenue and will be complemented by a number of various other air interface networks, including other advanced technologies such as 802.11n, LTE, WiMAX and Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB). Through our ongoing WorldMode efforts, we will ensure that CDMA carriers and their customers will have the necessary multi-mode devices to support applications on CDMA2000 and the other leading radio technologies. 3G CDMA services will remain the dominant generation of mobile communications services long into the future.”
Instead of CDMA, Sprint has chosen Mobile WiMAX (Xohm) as its 4G solution. That would likely give them a 2-4 year lead time over LTE.
Verizon did not give a time frame for building the network, but Vodafone’s Sarin had estimated it could be 2010 or 2011 before it was possible to start using LTE commercially. He had said it may be 2015 before they are on a common platform. Trial suppliers include Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Motorola, Nokia-Siemens, and Nortel.
Qualcomm’s Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB) looks orphaned as Verizon and Sprint jump ship. South Korea also utilizes CDMA, but is launching a nationwide Mobile WiMAX thrust. Between 75%-80% of the world’s phones are now based on the GSM standard, and that percentage is increasing.
LTE allows download rates of 100 Mbps and upload speeds of 50 Mbps for every 20 MHz of spectrum. It can handle 200 connections per 5 MHz, and will work in 700 MHz. However, LTE is not upwardly compatible with any current basestation or handset. It’s a big step that may also require new frequencies.
Mobile WiMAX (IEEE 802.16e), by contrast, is expected to evolve seamlessly from its current 30 Mbps platform to IEEE 802.16m, with 100 Mbps mobile connectivity. It will be up to speed (and likely sanctioned by the ITU) long before the first LTE gear arrives.
LTE will support bandwidths ranging from 1.25MHz to 20MHz (pdf). On 2.6GHz, it will be possible to deploy 20MHz carriers. On frequency bands already used by, for example, GSM, the introduction of LTE could be done using a 1.25MHz carrier in the first phase.
LTE is being promoted as an evolution of 3G technology and, therefore, a more natural choice than mobile WiMAX for an existing 3G operator. The trouble is, LTE has not yet been standardized. In the absence of defined technical specifications, critics say it has little in common with today’s 3G, including HSPA, and that rollout schedules are optimistic.
GSM coalitions like 3GPP and 3G Americas have have a plan for 4G evolution (pdf). It includes a move from HSDPA to LTE (in 2-3 years), then on to “4G” (in 5 years).
3G Today and the CDMA Development Group promote CDMA evolution (i.e. EVDO rather than HSDPA). While CdmaOne (IS-95) and CDMA2000 utilize 2 x 1.25 MHz radio channels, future Qualcomm-backed CDMA evolution includes 1xEV-DO Rev. B and Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB), which will enable operators to aggregate up to 15, 1.25 MHz channels in 20 MHz of spectrum.
WiMAX already uses OFDM technology and techniques favored by LTE and 4G. The evolving 802.16m standard will bring 100Mbps-1Gbps speed. Why wait, the WiMAX Forum argues, get WiMAX now and be upwardly compatible.
Senza-Fili Consulting (above), projects 54 million WiMAX subscribers by 2012, with growth driven by emerging markets. By 2012, a third of them will also use WiMAX as a fixed-access technology. That contrasts with 5 million HSPA subscribers today, worldwide, and some 70% of the projected 1.2 billion broadband wireless subs in 2012. Juniper Research guesses the number of LTE subs will approach 24 million by 2012.
Juniper Research also forecasts substantial growth in WiMAX after 2012. “India Broadband Wireless and WiMAX Market Analysis and Forecasts” estimates that there will be up to 21 million WiMAX subscribers in India by 2014.
By 2011, more than 3 billion mobile subscribers are projected, of which approximately 74% will be mobile data subscriber (contributing 20% of revenue for operators). Analysts expect the global mobile content and applications market will be greater than $80B by 2010.
Related WiMAX articles on DailyWireless include; Verizon Jumping to LTE?, Jacobs: WiMAX is Crap, Qualcomm Talks Up Rev. B & C, NTT “Super 3G”, Sprint Exits SpectrumCo, AWS Visual Guide, AWS: It’s Done, Vodafone Joins WiMAX; but HSPA to Dominate, HSPA Chips — Game Changer?, U.S. Cellular Growth, Frontline: Rumble in the Jungle, Sprint’s Barry West, Sprint’s WiMAX Cities, Nortel: WiMAX Train Leaving Station, Mobile WiMAX - The Next Iridium?, Carriers Test “Real” 4G, Will Consumers Prefer WiMAX?, Civil War in 4G and Sprint: It’s WiMAX!.
